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Estimating time series models using the relevant cost function (replication d...
In many forecasting problems, the forecast cost function is used only in evaluating the forecasts; a second cost function is used in estimating the parameters in the model. In... -
Co-integration constraint and forecasting: An empirical examination (replicat...
Does co-integration help long-term forecasts? In this paper, we use simulation, real data sets, and multi-step-ahead post-sample forecasts to study this question. Based on the... -
Assessing forecast performance in a cointegrated system (replication data)
This paper examines the forecast performance of a cointegrated system relative to the forecast performance of a comparable VAR that fails to recognize that the system is... -
Stock market volatility and the business cycle (replication data)
This paper investigates the joint time series behavior of monthly stock returns and growth in industrial production. We find that stock returns are well characterized by... -
Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts? (replication data)
A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty... -
Intercept corrections and structural change (replication data)
Analyses of forecasting that assume a constant, time-invariant data generating process (DGP), and so implicitly rule out structural change or regime shifts in the economy,... -
Applied cointegration analysis in the mirror of macroeconomic theory (replica...
Cointegration analyses of macroeconomic time series are often not based on fully specified theoretical models. We use a theoretical model to scrutinize common procedures in... -
Persistence of shocks on seasonal processes (replication data)
The paper addresses the issue of measuring the persistence of shocks on seasonally integrated processes observed at quarterly intervals. We show that the amplitude of the... -
The inconsistency of common scale estimators when output prices are unobserve...
This paper explores the inconsistency of common scale estimators when output is proxied by deflated sales, based on a common output deflator across firms. The problem arises... -
Credit rationing and threshold effects in the relation between money and outp...
The possibility that the effect of monetary policy on output may depend on whether credit conditions are tight or loose can be expressed as a non-linearity in the relation... -
Analytic derivatives and the computation of GARCH estimates (replication data)
In the context of univariate GARCH models we show how analytic first and second derivatives of the log-likelihood can be successfully employed for estimation purposes. Maximum... -
Computing median unbiased estimates in macroeconometric models (replication d...
A stochastic simulation procedure is proposed in this paper for obtaining median unbiased (MU) estimates in macroeconometric models. MU estimates are computed for lagged... -
Regime switching as a test for exchange rate bubbles (replication data)
This paper develops a new test for speculative bubbles, which is applied to data for the Japanese yen, the German mark and the Canadian dollar exchange rates from 1977 to 1991.... -
Occupational pensions and job mobility in Britain: Estimation of a random-eff...
We analyse transitions between pensionable jobs, non-pensionable jobs, and other labour market states, using the 1988/9 UK Retirement Survey. We focus on the positive... -
On a double-threshold autoregressive heteroscedastic time series model (repli...
Tong's threshold models have been found useful in modelling nonlinearities in the conditional mean of a time series. The threshold model is extended to the so-called... -
Parametric and semi-parametric estimation of the binary response model of lab...
This paper compares the familiar probit model with three semiparametric estimators of binary response models in an application to labour market participation of married women.... -
The excess co-movement of commodity prices reconsidered (replication data)
This paper provides an empirical reconsideration of evidence for excess co-movement of commodity prices within the framework of univariate and multivariate GARCH(1, 1) models.... -
Panel Estimates of a Two-Tiered Earnings Frontier (replication data)
This paper uses panel data to estimate a two-tiered instead of a one-tiered frontier model. The innovation is to develop a two-step maximum likelihood procedure yielding... -
Incorporating monotonicity and concavity conditions in flexible functional fo...
Empirical economists using flexible functional forms often face the disturbing choice of drawing inferences from an approximation violating properties dictated by theory or... -
Erratum: The likelihood ratio test under nonstandard conditions: Testing the ...
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