Carlos Madeira
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testing the rationality of expectations of qualitative outcomes (replication data)

This article provides an adequate statistic for testing the rationality of point predictions of categorical outcomes under a subjective median or mode assumption. The test improves upon previous approaches by accounting for all the required moment inequalities and their respective covariance matrix in a single statistic. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has an improved Type I error, especially in cases with multiple modes. Applying these tests to a dataset with parents' and students' predictions of school scores, I find that respondents are biased towards expecting higher grades and that students' expectations are correlated with the time of study.

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Suggested Citation

Madeira, Carlos (2018): Testing the rationality of expectations of qualitative outcomes (replication data). Version: 1. Journal of Applied Econometrics. Dataset. https://jda-test.zbw.eu/dataset/testing-the-rationality-of-expectations-of-qualitative-outcomes?activity_id=8a7eccd5-e031-4029-8347-a141b277e0d9