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A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables...
We investigate whether return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables to shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is... -
Testing distributional assumptions: A GMM aproach (replication data)
We consider testing distributional assumptions by using moment conditions. A general class of moment conditions satisfied under the null hypothesis is derived and connected to... -
INDIVIDUAL VERSUS AGGREGATE INCOME ELASTICITIES FOR HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS...
This paper deals with different concepts of income elasticities of demand for a heterogeneous population and the relationship between individual and aggregate elasticities. In... -
BAYESIAN MODEL SELECTION AND FORECASTING IN NONCAUSAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS (...
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation and forecasting procedure for noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. Specifically, we derive the joint posterior density of the... -
A PANEL DATA APPROACH FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION: MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF POLIT...
We propose a simple-to-implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy. The basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross-sectional units to construct... -
A RANK-ORDERED LOGIT MODEL WITH UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY IN RANKING CAPABILIT...
To study preferences, respondents to a survey are usually asked to select their most preferred option from a set. Preferences can be estimated more efficiently if respondents... -
FOSTERING EDUCATIONAL ENROLMENT THROUGH SUBSIDIES: THE ISSUE OF TIMING (repli...
The purpose of this paper is to build a dynamic structural model of educational choices in which cognitive skills shape decisions. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood... -
‘DUAL’ GRAVITY: USING SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS TO CONTROL FOR MULTILATERAL RESIST...
We derive a quantity-based structural gravity equation system in which both trade flows and error terms are cross-sectionally correlated. This system can be estimated using... -
WEIGHTED SMOOTH TRANSITION REGRESSIONS (replication data)
A new procedure is proposed for modelling nonlinearity of a smooth transition form, by allowing the transition variable to be a weighted function of lagged observations. This... -
COMPARISON OF MODEL AVERAGING TECHNIQUES: ASSESSING GROWTH DETERMINANTS (repl...
This paper investigates the replicability of three important studies on growth theory uncertainty that employed Bayesian model averaging tools. We compare these results with... -
The political economy of financial reform: How robust are huang's findings? (...
Using new data on financial liberalization taken from Abiad et al. (2008, IMF Working Papers, No. 08/266) for 62 countries over the period 1975-2005, we show that some of the... -
Optimal monetary policy using an unrestricted VAR (replication data)
This paper proposes a simple benchmark for monetary policy. Assuming the true model of the economy is unknown, it is based on an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR). The... -
A simple, flexible estimator for count and other ordered discrete data (repli...
This paper examines a flexible way to model empirically discrete data outcomes using hazard rate decompositions. It presents a general data-generating mechanism based on... -
Term structure surprises: the predictive content of curvature, level, and slo...
This paper analyzes the predictive content of the term structure components level, slope, and curvature within a dynamic factor model of macroeconomic and interest rate data.... -
Lose weight for a raise only if overweight: Marginal integration for semi-lin...
Some studies have shown that body mass index (BMI), weight (kg)/height (m)2, has a negative (or no) effect on wage. But BMI representing obesity is a tightly specified function... -
A blocking and regularization approach to high-dimensional realized covarianc...
We introduce a blocking and regularization approach to estimate high-dimensional covariances using high-frequency data. Assets are first grouped according to liquidity. Using... -
Probabilistic forecasting of output growth, inflation and the balance of trad...
We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for... -
The impact of data revisions on the robustness of growth determinants-a note ...
Ciccone and Jaroci-ski (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2010; 2: 222-246) show that inference in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) can be highly sensitive to small data... -
An identification-robust test for time-varying parameters in the dynamics of ...
We test for the presence of time-varying parameters (TVP) in the long-run dynamics of energy prices for oil, natural gas and coal, within a standard class of mean-reverting... -
Modelling dependence using skew t copulas: Bayesian inference and application...
We construct a copula from the skew t distribution of Sahu et al. (2003). This copula can capture asymmetric and extreme dependence between variables, and is one of the few...
