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Focused Bayesian prediction (replication data)
We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is... -
Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatili...
Adding multivariate stochastic volatility of a flexible form to large vector autoregressions (VARs) involving over 100 variables has proved challenging owing to computational... -
The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: Stronger than thought...
Standard macroeconomic theory predicts rapid responses of asset prices to monetary policy shocks. Small-scale vector autoregressions (VARs), however, often find sluggish and... -
Modeling the effects of grade retention in high school (replication data)
A dynamic discrete-choice model is set up to estimate the effects of grade retention in high school, both in the short run (end-of-year evaluation) and in the long run (drop-out... -
The puzzling effects of monetary policy in VARs: Invalid identification or mi...
Standard vector autoregressions (VARs) often find puzzling effects of monetary policy shocks. Is this due to an invalid (recursive) identification scheme, or because the... -
Likelihood-Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Panel Count Mode...
We develop a panel count model with a latent spatio-temporal heterogeneous state process for monthly severe crimes at the census-tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our... -
Refining Stylized Facts from Factor Models of Inflation (replication data)
Factor models of disaggregate inflation indices suggest that sectoral shocks generate the bulk of sectoral inflation variance, but no persistence. Aggregate shocks, by contrast,... -
Effect of FDI and Time on Catching Up: New Insights from a Conditional Nonpar...
We use an appropriate nonparametric two-step approach on conditional efficiencies to investigate how foreign direct investment (FDI) and time affect the process of catching up.... -
Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis (replica...
This paper studies the role of the Federal Reserve's policy in the recent boom and bust of the housing market, and in the ensuing recession. By estimating a structural dynamic... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUD...
We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow... -
Stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational mobility tables (replication data)
The aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio-economic mobility tables. In other words, we question whether having a parent from a high... -
Non-Gaussian dynamic Bayesian modelling for panel data (replication data)
A first order autoregressive non-Gaussian model for analysing panel data is proposed. The main feature is that the model is able to accommodate fat tails and also skewness, thus... -
Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve (replication data)
Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected... -
Inter-state dynamics of invention activities, 1930–2000 (replication data)
We study the dynamics of the cross-section distribution of patents per capita for the 48 continental US states from 1930 to 2000 using a discrete-state Markov chain. We test for... -
A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? ...
We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM?$ exchange rate data and IBM... -
Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions (replication data)
A prominent test of long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long-horizon output growth on long-horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this... -
A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly seri...
Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock-Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information... -
Testing the implications of long-run neutrality for monetary business cycle m...
This paper compares sample fluctuations of the US business cycle with those predicted by a class of equilibrium monetary business cycle models. The predictions of the models are...
