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Growth Determinants Revisited Using Limited-Information Bayesian Model Averag...
We revisit the growth empirics debate using a novel limited-information Bayesian model averaging framework in short T panels that addresses model uncertainty, dynamics, and... -
Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy (replication data)
In this paper we discuss how the point and density forecasting performance of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) is affected by a number of specification choices. We adopt... -
Econometric Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble (replication data)
Using aggregate quarterly data for the period 1975:Q1-2010:Q4, I find that the US housing market changed from a stable regime with prices determined by fundamentals, to a highly... -
Investment decisions in manufacturing: assessing the effects of real oil pric...
We investigate the effects of real oil prices and their uncertainty on investment decisions. Making use of plant-level data, we estimate dynamic, discrete-choice models that... -
Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change (replication data)
The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated real-time out-of-sample... -
Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities (replication data)
Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting... -
Large Bayesian vector auto regressions (replication data)
This paper shows that vector auto regression (VAR) with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results of De Mol and co-workers... -
Does the option market produce superior forecasts of noise-corrected volatili...
This paper assesses the robustness of the relative performance of spot? and options-based volatility forecasts to the treatment of microstructure noise. Robustness of the... -
Annual miles drive used car prices (replication data)
This paper investigates whether the net benefits from owning a vehicle, proxied by annual miles driven, explain the price declines observed over a vehicle's life. We first model... -
International dynamic risk sharing (replication data)
In this paper we examine the implications of international risk sharing among a set of countries in the presence of market frictions which complicate the instantaneous... -
Unravelling financial market linkages during crises (replication data)
An empirical model of multiple asset classes across countries is formulated in a latent factor framework. A special feature of the model is that financial market linkages during... -
The transmission mechanism in a changing world (replication data)
The paper aims to identify those factors that cause changes in the speed and strength of the international transmission of output shocks from the USA to specified European... -
Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?...
Potential output plays a central role in monetary policy and short-term macroeconomic policy making. Yet, characterizing the output gap involves a trend-cycle decomposition, and... -
This is what the leading indicators lead (replication data)
We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyse the CLI's accuracy...
