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Modeling the conditional distribution of financial returns with asymmetric ta...
This paper proposes a conditional density model that allows for differing left/right tail indices and time-varying volatility based on the dynamic conditional score (DCS)... -
The next hundred years of growth and convergence (replication data)
World gross domestic product per capita is forecast to grow at 2.6% annually over the next 100 years. Convergence of less-developed countries toward output levels of the world... -
Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autor...
We consider how to estimate the trend and cycle of a time series, such as real gross domestic product, given a large information set. Our approach makes use of the... -
Interpreting shocks to the relative price of investment with a two‐sector mod...
Consumption and investment comove over the business cycle in response to shocks that permanently move the price of investment. The interpretation of these shocks has relied on... -
Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A ne...
We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the... -
Two are better than one: Volatility forecasting using multiplicative componen...
We examine the properties and forecast performance of multiplicative volatility specifications that belong to the class of generalized autoregressive conditional... -
Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database (replicati...
We present a new, publicly available database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections, which will be updated on an annual basis. We... -
The two‐sample linear regression model with interval‐censored covariates (rep...
There are surveys that gather precise information on an outcome of interest, but measure continuous covariates by a discrete number of intervals, in which case the covariates... -
Simultaneous confidence bands: Theory, implementation, and an application to ...
Simultaneous confidence bands are versatile tools for visualizing estimation uncertainty for parameter vectors, such as impulse response functions. In linear models, it is known... -
Private returns to R&D in the presence of spillovers, revisited (replicat...
This is both a replication of Eberhardt et al. (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 95(2), 436-448) using different software, and a critical extension and diagnostic... -
(Under)Mining local residential property values: A semiparametric spatial qua...
Rock mining operations, including limestone and gravel production, have considerable adverse effects on residential quality of life due to elevated noise and dust levels... -
The puzzling effects of monetary policy in VARs: Invalid identification or mi...
Standard vector autoregressions (VARs) often find puzzling effects of monetary policy shocks. Is this due to an invalid (recursive) identification scheme, or because the... -
The approximate solution of finite‐horizon discrete‐choice dynamic programmin...
The estimation of finite-horizon discrete-choice dynamic programming (DCDP) models is computationally expensive. This limits their realism and impedes verification and... -
Information flows and stock market volatility (replication data)
This study examines how news is distributed across stocks. A model is developed that categorizes a stock's latent news into normal and nonnormal news, and allows both types of... -
Cartel dating (replication data)
The begin and end dates of cartels are often ambiguous, despite competition authorities stating them with precision. The legally established infringement period(s) from... -
Switching generalized autoregressive score copula models with application to ...
Recent financial disasters have emphasized the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial... -
Estimating within‐cluster spillover effects using a cluster randomization wit...
Spillover effects within randomized clusters pose a challenge for identifying impacts of an individualized treatment. The paper proposes a solution. Longitudinal and... -
The evolution of scale economies in US banking (replication data)
Continued consolidation of the US banking industry and a general increase in the size of banks have prompted some policymakers to consider policies that discourage banks from... -
Decomposing economic mobility transition matrices (replication data)
We present a decomposition method for transition matrices to identify forces driving the persistence of economic status across generations. The method decomposes differences... -
Predicting crude oil prices: Replication of the empirical results in “What do...
In addition to their theoretical analysis of the joint determination of oil futures prices and oil spot prices, Alquist and Kilian (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25(4),...
