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Reduced‐form factor augmented VAR—Exploiting sparsity to include meaningful f...
Induced sparsity in the factor loading matrix identifies the factor basis, while rotational identification is obtained ex post by clustering methods closely related to machine... -
How does the financial market update beliefs about the real economy? Evidence...
Oil traders find it challenging to process all information and choose which sources to follow. Inventories represent a perfect source, as they provide important information... -
Endogenous health groups and heterogeneous dynamics of the elderly (replicati...
We propose a methodology to classify individuals into few but meaningful health groups by estimating a panel Markov switching model that exploits rich information from panel... -
Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns (repli...
Using a novel, nationally representative dataset containing the expectations of over 300,000 Australians, individuals are shown to form expectations in a manner inadequately... -
Interpretation of point forecasts with unknown directive (replication data)
Point forecasts can be interpreted as functionals (i.e., point summaries) of predictive distributions. We extend methodology for the identification of the functional based on... -
If not now, when? The timing of childbirth and labor market outcomes (replica...
We study the effect of childbirth and birth timing on female labor market outcomes in Italy. The impact is traced up to 21 years since school completion by estimating a factor... -
A one covariate at a time, multiple testing approach to variable selection in...
Chudik, Kapetanios, & Pesaran (Econometrica 2018, 86, 1479-1512) propose a one covariate at a time, multiple testing (OCMT) approach to variable selection in... -
Productivity effects of internationalisation through the domestic supply chai...
This paper investigates productivity effects for a given firm resulting from the import or export of intermediate inputs by domestic upstream and downstream industries. With the... -
The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: International evi...
Based on a large historical panel dataset, this paper provides evidence that the government spending multiplier can be significantly higher when interest rates are at or near... -
The double‐edged sword of global integration: Robustness, fragility, and cont...
Increased global integration of firm, production, and financial networks has the potential to benefit growth but also amplify the transmission of crises. We test whether higher... -
Labour supply, service intensity, and contracts: Theory and evidence on physi...
Based on linked administrative and survey panel data, we analyse the labour supply behaviour of physicians who could adopt either a standard fee-for-service contract or a mixed... -
Did Protestantism promote prosperity via higher human capital? Replicating th...
This paper shows that the Becker-Woessmann reformulation of the Weber thesis-Protestants were more prosperous in 19th-century Prussia because they had higher human capital-is... -
Sparse change‐point VAR models (replication data)
Change-point (CP) VAR models face a dimensionality curse due to the proliferation of parameters that arises when new breaks are detected. We introduce the Sparse CP-VAR model... -
The impact of HIV/AIDS on human capital investment in Sub‐Saharan Africa: New...
The risk of AIDS-related mortality increased dramatically throughout the 1990s. This paper updates previous work by Fortson (2011) to examine the impact of mortality risk on... -
Ranking intersecting distribution functions (replication data)
Second-degree dominance has become a widely accepted criterion for ordering distribution functions according to social welfare. However, it provides only a partial ordering, and... -
Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter ...
We build a time-varying parameter model that jointly explains the dynamics of euro area inflation and inflation expectations. Our goal is to explain the weak inflation during... -
Focused Bayesian prediction (replication data)
We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is... -
Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation...
The unobserved components time series model with stochastic volatility has gained much interest in econometrics, especially for the purpose of modelling and forecasting... -
Estimating household consumption insurance (replication data)
Blundell, Pistaferri, and Preston (American Economic Review, 2008, 98(5), 1887-1921) report an estimate of household consumption insurance with respect to permanent income... -
No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interes...
We use a Bayesian vector autoregression with stochastic volatility to forecast government bond yields. We form the conjugate prior from a no-arbitrage affine term structure...
