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Differences Between Classical and Bayesian Estimates for Mixed Logit Models: ...
The mixed logit model is widely used in applied econometrics. Researchers typically rely on the free choice between the classical and Bayesian estimation approach. However,... -
Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach (replicat...
This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross-sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable... -
Conventional Monetary Policy Transmission During Financial Crises: An Empiric...
This paper studies the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock in the USA during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth... -
Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at t...
Appropriate real-time forecasting models for the US retail price of gasoline yield substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) at horizons up to 2 years... -
Absenteeism, Gender and the Morbidity–Mortality Paradox (replication data)
Women are, on average, more often absent from work for health reasons than men, but live longer. This conflicting pattern suggests that the gender absenteeism gap arises partly... -
Marginalized Predictive Likelihood Comparisons of Linear Gaussian State-Space...
The predictive likelihood is useful for ranking models in forecast comparison exercises using Bayesian inference. We discuss how it can be estimated, by means of... -
State Prices of Conditional Quantiles: New Evidence on Time Variation in the ...
We develop a set of statistics to represent the option-implied stochastic discount factor and we apply them to S&P 500 returns between 1990 and 2012. Our statistics, which... -
Modeling Financial Sector Joint Tail Risk in the Euro Area (replication data)
We develop a novel high-dimensional non-Gaussian modeling framework to infer measures of conditional and joint default risk for numerous financial sector firms. The model is... -
Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data (replication data)
This paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices. We compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices... -
How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets? (replication data)
Because the state of the equity market is latent, several methods have been proposed to identify past and current states of the market and forecast future ones. These methods... -
Forecasting Tail Risks (replication data)
This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data... -
Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand (rep...
Least-squares estimates of the response of gasoline consumption to a change in the gasoline price are biased toward zero, given the endogeneity of gasoline prices. A seemingly... -
Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia (repli...
This paper estimates average and marginal returns to schooling in Indonesia using a semiparametric selection model. Identification of the model is given by geographic variation... -
Modeling and Forecasting Large Realized Covariance Matrices and Portfolio Cho...
We consider modeling and forecasting large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector autoregressive models. We consider Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality... -
Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages (replication data)
We analyze the contribution of credit spread, house and stock price shocks to the US economy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model. We find that the... -
Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations (replication...
We propose a density combination approach featuring combination weights that depend on the past forecast performance of the individual models entering the combination through a... -
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression (replication data)
We consider Bayesian analysis of the noncausal vector autoregressive model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and effects of missing variables. Specifically, we devise... -
Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession (replication data)
We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our... -
Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship? (replica...
This paper replicates the estimation results of three studies on the impact of the age composition of the labor force on business cycle volatility and investigates whether they... -
Forecasting with Global Vector Autoregressive Models: a Bayesian Approach (re...
This paper develops a Bayesian variant of global vector autoregressive (B-GVAR) models to forecast an international set of macroeconomic and financial variables. We propose a...
