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A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information-Based Trading: Theory and Appli...
This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive... -
Estimating Incentive and Selection Effects in the Medigap Insurance Market: A...
This paper presents an empirical study of endogenous treatment effects in the presence of heterogeneous responses. We estimate the incentive and selection effects of having... -
Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach (replication data)
This work investigates how the state of credit markets affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model on US quarterly data for... -
Refining Stylized Facts from Factor Models of Inflation (replication data)
Factor models of disaggregate inflation indices suggest that sectoral shocks generate the bulk of sectoral inflation variance, but no persistence. Aggregate shocks, by contrast,... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators (replication data)
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle... -
The Measurement and Characteristics of Professional Forecasters' Uncertainty ...
Several statistical issues that arise in the construction and interpretation of measures of uncertainty from forecast surveys that include probability questions are considered,... -
What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies (replication data)
We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the... -
The Environmental Kuznets Curve, Cointegration and Nonlinearity (replication ...
This paper clarifies some conceptual shortcomings of the empirical environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) literature that arise because of the hitherto inadequate application of unit... -
On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests (replication data)
Empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index (CPI), but fails... -
Purchasing Power Parity and the Taylor Rule (replication data)
It is well known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's consensus half-life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a... -
Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic N...
We estimate versions of the Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the... -
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth (replication data)
This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and... -
Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Result...
We propose a novel identification-robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated New Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against... -
Macroeconomic Effects of Precautionary Demand for Oil (replication data)
We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future... -
Doubly Robust Estimation of Causal Effects with Multivalued Treatments: An Ap...
This paper provides doubly robust estimators for treatment effect parameters which are defined in a multivalued treatment effect framework. We apply this method to the unique... -
Effect of FDI and Time on Catching Up: New Insights from a Conditional Nonpar...
We use an appropriate nonparametric two-step approach on conditional efficiencies to investigate how foreign direct investment (FDI) and time affect the process of catching up.... -
Spline Regression in the Presence of Categorical Predictors (replication data)
We consider the problem of estimating a relationship nonparametrically using regression splines when there exist both continuous and categorical predictors. We combine the... -
Replacing Sample Trimming with Boundary Correction in Nonparametric Estimatio...
Two-step nonparametric estimators have become standard in empirical auctions. A drawback concerns boundary effects which cause inconsistencies near the endpoints of the support... -
When Does the Stepping-Stone Work? Fixed-Term Contracts Versus Temporary Agen...
This paper emphasizes differences among short-term contracts in terms of career prospects. Using French data over the 2002-2010 period, we rely on a dynamic model with fixed...
