-
A Hidden Markov Model Approach to Information-Based Trading: Theory and Appli...
This paper develops a novel approach to information-based securities trading by characterizing the hidden state of the market, which varies following a Markov process. Extensive... -
Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility (replication data)
We investigate the relationship between long-term US stock market risks and the macroeconomic environment using a two-component GARCH-MIDAS model. Our results show that... -
Extracting Nonlinear Signals from Several Economic Indicators (replication data)
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle... -
What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies (replication data)
We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the... -
On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests (replication data)
Empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index (CPI), but fails... -
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth (replication data)
This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and... -
Doubly Robust Estimation of Causal Effects with Multivalued Treatments: An Ap...
This paper provides doubly robust estimators for treatment effect parameters which are defined in a multivalued treatment effect framework. We apply this method to the unique... -
When Does the Stepping-Stone Work? Fixed-Term Contracts Versus Temporary Agen...
This paper emphasizes differences among short-term contracts in terms of career prospects. Using French data over the 2002-2010 period, we rely on a dynamic model with fixed... -
Narrow Replication of ‘A Spatio-Temporal Model of House Prices in the Usa’ Us...
I narrowly replicate Holly et al.'s (Journal of Econometrics 2010; 158(1): 160-173) analysis of the housing market in the USA, using the open source R software instead of the... -
The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
MIXED‐FREQUENCY STRUCTURAL MODELS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND POLICY ANA...
The mismatch between the timescale of DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models and the data used in their estimation translates into identification problems,... -
CHOOSING THE VARIABLES TO ESTIMATE SINGULAR DSGE MODELS (replication data)
We propose two methods to choose the variables to be used in the estimation of the structural parameters of a singular DSGE model. The first selects the vector of observables... -
ESTIMATING FISCAL LIMITS: THE CASE OF GREECE (replication data)
This paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate a real business cycle model that allows for interactions among fiscal policy instruments, the stochastic fiscal limit and sovereign... -
POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PH...
Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC)...
