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Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules (replication data)
We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual... -
Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time‐varying coefficients (repli...
Empirical work in macroeconometrics has been mostly restricted to using vector autoregressions (VARs), even though there are strong theoretical reasons to consider general... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables...
We investigate whether return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables to shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is... -
Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation (repl...
We use counterfactual experiments to investigate the sources of the large volatility reduction in US real GDP growth in the 1980s. Contrary to an existing literature that... -
Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility (replication d...
We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant... -
Is there a risk–return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data (replicat...
This paper examines the intertemporal relation between risk and return for the aggregate stock market using high-frequency data. We use daily realized, GARCH, implied, and... -
Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock ...
We propose a general double tree structured AR-GARCH model for the analysis of global equity index returns. The model extends previous approaches by incorporating (i) several... -
A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)? ...
We compare 330 ARCH-type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out-of-sample using DM?$ exchange rate data and IBM... -
Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule (replication data)
This paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) using the flexible approach to nonlinear inference. We find that... -
Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in com...
In commodity futures markets, contracts with various delivery dates trade simultaneously. Applied researchers typically discard the majority of the data and form a single time... -
The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth (replica...
We study the effects of growth volatility and inflation volatility on average rates of output growth and inflation for post-war US data. Our results suggest that increased... -
Why were changes in the federal funds rate smaller in the 1990s? (replication...
We identify two major changes in the dynamics of the federal funds rate in the 1990s. We model the desired rate in a two-regime setting, one when the Fed makes no change and the... -
The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from internationa...
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment for the estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM... -
A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility (replicat...
In this paper we provide both qualitative and quantitative measures of the precision of measuring integrated volatility by realized volatility for a fixed frequency of... -
Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns (replication data)
Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts which differ in length and size. In this paper we modify the basic... -
Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and AR...
This paper bridges the gap between traditional ARCH modelling and recent advances on realized volatilities. Based on a ten-year sample of five-minute returns for the ECU basket... -
Detecting multiple breaks in financial market volatility dynamics (replicatio...
The paper evaluates the performance of several recently proposed tests for structural breaks in the conditional variance dynamics of asset returns. The tests apply to the class... -
Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in th...
Crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures contracts are simultaneously analysed for their effectiveness in reducing price volatility for an energy trader. A... -
Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime s...
Commodity index futures offer a versatile tool for gaining different forms of exposure to commodity markets. Volatility is a critical input in many of these applications. This...
