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Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle: The case of Swit...
The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation... -
Structural FECM: Cointegration in large‐scale structural FAVAR models (replic...
Starting from the dynamic factor model for nonstationary data we derive the factor-augmented error correction model (FECM) and its moving-average representation. The latter is... -
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression (replication data)
We consider Bayesian analysis of the noncausal vector autoregressive model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and effects of missing variables. Specifically, we devise... -
Interconnections Between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts Using a Bayesian Pan...
The proposed panel Markov-switching VAR model accommodates changes in low and high data frequencies and incorporates endogenous time-varying transition matrices of... -
IDENTIFICATION ISSUES IN LIMITED‐INFORMATION BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL ...
The likelihood of the parameters in structural macroeconomic models typically has non-identification regions over which it is constant. When sufficiently diffuse priors are... -
MIXED‐FREQUENCY STRUCTURAL MODELS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND POLICY ANA...
The mismatch between the timescale of DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models and the data used in their estimation translates into identification problems,... -
SALES, INVENTORIES AND REAL INTEREST RATES: A CENTURY OF STYLIZED FACTS (repl...
We use Bayesian time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in reduced-form and structural correlations between... -
Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy (replication data)
Monetary policy, the yield curve and the private sector behaviour of the US economy are modelled as a time-varying structural vector autoregression. The monetary policy shocks... -
Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions (replication data)
Bayesian priors are often used to restrain the otherwise highly over-parametrized vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The currently available Bayesian VAR methodology does not... -
Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a roll...
This paper develops a simple sequential multiple-horizon non-causation test strategy for trivariate VAR models (with one auxiliary variable). We apply the test strategy to a... -
Codependence in cointegrated autoregressive models (replication data)
This paper investigates codependent cycles, i.e., transitory components that react to common stimuli in a similar, although not necessarily synchronous fashion. Unlike previous... -
Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis ...
This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific... -
The transmission mechanism in a changing world (replication data)
The paper aims to identify those factors that cause changes in the speed and strength of the international transmission of output shocks from the USA to specified European... -
How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surv...
Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the... -
Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread...
This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non-linearity and a structural break when the spread between long- and short-term interest rates is the... -
A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy (...
We present and estimate a continuous time term structure model that incorporates observable macroeconomic variables and latent variables with a clear macroeconomic... -
What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregre...
This paper uses a simple VAR for the USA and Euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown, i.e. supply, demand, monetary policy and oil price... -
Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy (replication data)
The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with... -
Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a V...
Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more... -
The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S. (replication d...
This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non-linear VAR model. The non-linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that...
