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Dynamic spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic...
We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatiotemporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and... -
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression (replication data)
We consider Bayesian analysis of the noncausal vector autoregressive model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and effects of missing variables. Specifically, we devise... -
A Theoretical Foundation for the Nelson-Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models (r...
Yield curve models within the popular Nelson-Siegel class are shown to arise from formal low-order Taylor approximations of the generic Gaussian affine term structure model.... -
MIXED‐FREQUENCY STRUCTURAL MODELS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND POLICY ANA...
The mismatch between the timescale of DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models and the data used in their estimation translates into identification problems,... -
POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PH...
Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC)... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD coun...
This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions... -
Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation (repl...
We use counterfactual experiments to investigate the sources of the large volatility reduction in US real GDP growth in the 1980s. Contrary to an existing literature that... -
Asymmetric power distribution: Theory and applications to risk measurement (r...
Theoretical literature in finance has shown that the risk of financial time series can be well quantified by their expected shortfall, also known as the tail value-at-risk. In... -
A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity (repli...
It has been claimed that the deviations from purchasing power parity are highly persistent and have quite long half-lives under the assumption of a linear adjustment of real... -
Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing po...
Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally... -
Tests of seasonal integration and cointegration in multivariate unobserved co...
This paper considers tests of seasonal integration and cointegration for multivariate unobserved component models. First, the locally best invariant (LBI) test of the null... -
Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengt...
We consider the problem of estimating parametric multivariate density models when unequal amounts of data are available on each variable. We focus in particular on the case that... -
Timing structural change: a conditional probabilistic approach (replication d...
We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time-series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting... -
Periodically expanding discounted debt: a threat to fiscal policy sustainabil...
This paper models the behaviour of discounted US debt using a Markov-switching time series model. The significance of modelling fiscal policy within this framework derives from... -
Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule (replication data)
This paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) using the flexible approach to nonlinear inference. We find that... -
Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in com...
In commodity futures markets, contracts with various delivery dates trade simultaneously. Applied researchers typically discard the majority of the data and form a single time... -
Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions (replication data)
This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession bounce-back in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this... -
Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models (replication data)
The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of... -
Evidence on purchasing power parity from univariate models: the case of smoot...
Recent research has found that trend-break unit root tests derived from univariate linear models do not support the hypothesis of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) for US...
