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Forecasting Tail Risks (replication data)
This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data... -
Combining Time Variation and Mixed Frequencies: an Analysis of Government Spe...
In this paper, we propose a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (VAR) model with stochastic volatility which allows for estimation on data sampled at different... -
Exponent of Cross-Sectional Dependence: Estimation and Inference (replication...
This paper provides a characterisation of the degree of cross-sectional dependence in a two dimensional array, {xit,i = 1,2,...N;t = 1,2,...,T} in terms of the rate at which the... -
Reanalyzing Zero Returns to Education in Germany (replication data)
Pischke and von Wachter (Review of Economics and Statistics 2008; 90(3): 592-598) find zero earnings returns to compulsory schooling in the basic school track in Germany. We... -
A Two-Stage Approach to Spatio-Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross-S...
An understanding of the spatial dimension of economic and social activity requires methods that can separate out the relationship between spatial units that is due to the effect... -
Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic N...
We estimate versions of the Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the... -
The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Seri...
This paper compares the forecasting performance of models that have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. They differ in their treatment of the... -
POSTERIOR‐PREDICTIVE EVIDENCE ON US INFLATION USING EXTENDED NEW KEYNESIAN PH...
Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC)... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
UNCOVERING THE COMMON RISK-FREE RATE IN THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION (replicat...
We introduce longitudinal factor analysis (LFA) to extract the common risk-free (CRF) rate from a sample of sovereign bonds of countries in a monetary union. Since LFA exploits... -
THE PREDICTABILITY OF AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN OECD COUNTRIES: A PANEL...
We examine aggregate consumption growth predictability. We derive a dynamic consumption equation which encompasses relevant predictability factors: habit formation,... -
TIME VARIATION IN THE DYNAMICS OF WORKER FLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH AMERICA A...
Vector autoregressive methods have been used to model the interrelationships between job vacancy rates, job separation rates and job-finding rates using tools such as impulse... -
INFORMATION IN THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO-FINANCE APPROACH (replication data)
We use a macro-finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the US bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques,... -
SPATIAL COMPETITION WITH CHANGING MARKET INSTITUTIONS (replication data)
Competition across space can be fundamentally altered by changes in market institutions. We propose a framework that integrates market-altering policy changes in the spatial... -
Learning from peers in signaling game experiments (replication data)
We investigate peer group effects in laboratory experiments based on Milgrom and Roberts' (1982, Econometrica 50: 443-459) entry limit pricing game. We generalize Heckman's... -
Banking Systems, Central Banks and International Reserve Accumulation in East...
The corresponding paper examines changes in the balance sheets of the banking system in five East Asian economies which were affected by the 1997 Asian Crisis. These countries...
