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Forecast comparisons in unstable environments (replication data)
We propose new methods for comparing the out-of-sample forecasting performance of two competing models in the presence of possible instabilities. The main idea is to develop a... -
A comparison of forecast performance between federal reserve staff forecasts,...
This paper considers the real-time-- forecast performance of the Federal Reserve staff, time-series models, and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)... -
What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures? (replication data)
Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean-squared prediction error sense than no-change... -
Participation and study decisions in a public system of higher education (rep...
We analyze the decision whether to participate and where and what to study in a public system of higher education, based on a unique dataset of all eligible high school pupils... -
Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic str...
The information contained in a large panel dataset is used to date historical turning points and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series... -
Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU (replication data)
We estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for major economic forecasts of 12 Member States. Based on a recently proposed method by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005)... -
The price consideration model of brand choice (replication data)
The workhorse brand choice models in marketing are the multinomial logit (MNL) and nested multinomial logit (NMNL). These models place strong restrictions on how brand share and... -
Random Recursive Partitioning: a matching method for the estimation of the av...
In this paper we introduce the Random Recursive Partitioning (RRP) matching method. RRP generates a proximity matrix which might be useful in econometric applications like... -
Efficiency and productivity of the US banking industry, 1998-2005: evidence f...
This paper provides estimates of bank efficiency and productivity in the United States, over the period from 1998 to 2005, using (for the first time) the globally flexible... -
Efficiency externalities of trade and alternative forms of foreign investment...
The literature on the spillover effects of trade and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) has concentrated on technological externalities. Little effort has been directed... -
Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using mod...
We apply recent results from the statistics literature to test for multimodality of worldwide distributions of several (unweighted and population-weighted) measures of labor... -
Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD coun...
This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions... -
A nonparametric decomposition of the Mexican American average wage gap (repli...
This paper shows that average wage gap decompositions between any two groups of workers can be carried out using nonparametric wage structures. It also proposes an algorithm to... -
The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes...
We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically,... -
Is gravity linear? (replication data)
Despite the solid theoretical foundation on which the gravity model of bilateral trade is based, empirical implementation requires several assumptions which do not follow... -
Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility (replication d...
We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant... -
Quantifying the supply-side benefits from forward contracting in wholesale el...
The assumption of expected profit-maximizing bidding behavior in a multi-unit, multi-period auction with step-function supply curves is used to estimate cost functions for... -
Statistical inference for aggregates of Farrell-type efficiencies (replicatio...
In this study, we merge results of two recent directions in efficiency analysis research-aggregation and bootstrap-applied, as an example, to one of the most popular point... -
Identification of parameters in normal error component logit-mixture (NECLM) ...
Although the basic structure of logit-mixture models is well understood, important identification and normalization issues often get overlooked. This paper addresses issues... -
Efficiency of the California electricity reserves market (replication data)
We test the efficiency of the California electricity reserves market by examining systematic differences between its day- and hour-ahead prices. We uncover significant day-ahead...
