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MODELLING REGIME SWITCHING AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS WITH AN INFINITE HIDDEN MARK...
This paper proposes an infinite hidden Markov model to integrate the regime switching and structural break dynamics in a unified Bayesian framework. Two parallel hierarchical... -
THE ROLE OF CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY IN IDENTIFYING AND ESTIMATING LINE...
A new estimator is proposed for linear triangular systems, where identification results from the model errors following a bivariate and diagonal GARCH(1,1) process with... -
THE DYNAMICS OF REAL EXCHANGE RATES: A RECONSIDERATION (replication data)
In this paper we offer a bootstrap-based version of the Cox specification test for non-nested hypothesis to discriminate between ESTAR and MSAR models. Both models are commonly... -
REALIZED BETA GARCH: A MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODEL WITH REALIZED MEASURES OF VOL...
We introduce a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model that incorporates realized measures of variances and covariances. Realized... -
A MOMENT-MATCHING METHOD FOR APPROXIMATING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES BY...
This paper proposes a moment-matching method for approximating vector autoregressions by finite-state Markov chains. The Markov chain is constructed by targeting the conditional... -
CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS (repl...
Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such... -
FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES (replication data)
The inability of empirical models to forecast exchange rates has given rise to the belief that exchange rates are disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals. This paper... -
EVALUATING REAL-TIME VAR FORECASTS WITH AN INFORMATIVE DEMOCRATIC PRIOR (repl...
This paper proposes Bayesian forecasting in a vector autoregression using a democratic prior. This prior is chosen to match the predictions of survey respondents. In particular,... -
UNEMPLOYMENT, HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY (...
This paper presents a structural estimation of a life cycle model with unemployment risk. The model allows for human capital depreciation during unemployment. It is estimated... -
HOW IMPORTANT ARE ENDOGENOUS PEER EFFECTS IN GROUP LENDING? ESTIMATING A STAT...
We quantify the importance of endogenous peer effects in group lending programs by estimating a static game of incomplete information. Endogenous peer effects describe how one's... -
THE EFFECT OF PARENTAL EMPLOYMENT ON CHILD SCHOOLING (replication data)
This paper presents a model that provides conditions under which a causal interpretation can be given to the association between childhood parental employment and subsequent... -
TAX-LIMITED REACTION FUNCTIONS (replication data)
This paper models for the first time a spatial process in local tax policies in the presence of centrally imposed fiscal limitations. Focusing on the frequently encountered case... -
GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE SCORE MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS (replication data)
We propose a class of observation-driven time series models referred to as generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the... -
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY MODELING OF ELECTRICITY FUTURES (replication data)
We model the dynamic volatility and correlation structure of electricity futures of the European Energy Exchange index. We use a new multiplicative dynamic conditional... -
NONLINEAR GROWTH EFFECTS OF TAXATION: A SEMI-PARAMETRIC APPROACH USING AVERAG...
One of the major challenges of empirical tax research is the identification and calculation of appropriate tax data. While there is consensus that average marginal tax rates are... -
INDIVIDUAL VERSUS AGGREGATE INCOME ELASTICITIES FOR HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS...
This paper deals with different concepts of income elasticities of demand for a heterogeneous population and the relationship between individual and aggregate elasticities. In... -
BAYESIAN MODEL SELECTION AND FORECASTING IN NONCAUSAL AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS (...
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian estimation and forecasting procedure for noncausal autoregressive (AR) models. Specifically, we derive the joint posterior density of the... -
A PANEL DATA APPROACH FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION: MEASURING THE BENEFITS OF POLIT...
We propose a simple-to-implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy. The basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross-sectional units to construct... -
A RANK-ORDERED LOGIT MODEL WITH UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY IN RANKING CAPABILIT...
To study preferences, respondents to a survey are usually asked to select their most preferred option from a set. Preferences can be estimated more efficiently if respondents... -
FOSTERING EDUCATIONAL ENROLMENT THROUGH SUBSIDIES: THE ISSUE OF TIMING (repli...
The purpose of this paper is to build a dynamic structural model of educational choices in which cognitive skills shape decisions. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood...
