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Private debt overhang and the government spending multiplier: Evidence for th...
Using state-dependent local projections and historical US data, we find that government spending multipliers are considerably larger in periods of private debt overhang. In... -
Using a Structural-Form Model to Analyze the Impact of Home Ownership on Unem...
It is often found that the impact of home ownership on the hazard rate for leaving unemployment is positive, indicating that home ownership helps workers to leave unemployment... -
Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Development (replication data)
This paper introduces technological interdependence into the theoretical framework of Gennaioli et al. (Quarterly Journal of Economics 2013; 128: 105-164). This extension leads... -
Dynamic Panel Data Models With Irregular Spacing: With an Application to Earl...
With the increased availability of longitudinal data, dynamic panel data models have become commonplace. Moreover, the properties of various estimators of such models are well... -
MM Algorithm for General Mixed Multinomial Logit Models (replication data)
This paper develops a new technique for estimating mixed logit models with a simple minorization-maximization (MM) algorithm. The algorithm requires minimal coding and is easy... -
Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices (repl...
We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure... -
Density Forecasts With Midas Models (replication data)
We propose a parametric block wild bootstrap approach to compute density forecasts for various types of mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. First, Monte Carlo simulations... -
Simple Identification and Specification of Cointegrated Varma Models (replica...
We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models, creating a simple specification and estimation strategy for the... -
ESTIMATION OF CENSORED PANEL-DATA MODELS WITH SLOPE HETEROGENEITY (replicatio...
This paper considers estimation of censored panel-data models with individual-specific slope heterogeneity. The slope heterogeneity may be random (random slopes model) or... -
MEDICAL EXPENDITURE RISK AND HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO CHOICE (replication data)
Medical expenses are an increasingly important contributor to household financial risk. We examine the effect of medical expenditure risk on the willingness of Medicare... -
SPATIAL FILTERING, MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE SPEED OF INCOME CONVERGENCE IN E...
In this paper we put forward a Bayesian model averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The... -
ENTRY INTO PHARMACEUTICAL SUBMARKETS: A BAYESIAN PANEL PROBIT ANALYSIS (repli...
We study entry into pharmaceutical submarkets by using a dynamic panel probit model. We develop a Bayesian version of Wooldridge's approach to dealing with unobserved... -
Probabilistic forecasting of output growth, inflation and the balance of trad...
We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for... -
How does heterogeneity shape the socioeconomic gradient in health satisfactio...
Individual heterogeneity plays a key role in explaining variation in self-reported health and its socioeconomic gradient. It is hypothesised that the influence of this... -
Path forecast evaluation (replication data)
A path forecast refers to the sequence of forecasts 1 to H periods into the future. A summary of the range of possible paths the predicted variable may follow for a given... -
Forecast comparisons in unstable environments (replication data)
We propose new methods for comparing the out-of-sample forecasting performance of two competing models in the presence of possible instabilities. The main idea is to develop a... -
A comparison of forecast performance between federal reserve staff forecasts,...
This paper considers the real-time-- forecast performance of the Federal Reserve staff, time-series models, and an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)... -
What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures? (replication data)
Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean-squared prediction error sense than no-change... -
Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU (replication data)
We estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for major economic forecasts of 12 Member States. Based on a recently proposed method by Elliott, Komunjer and Timmermann (2005)... -
A nonparametric decomposition of the Mexican American average wage gap (repli...
This paper shows that average wage gap decompositions between any two groups of workers can be carried out using nonparametric wage structures. It also proposes an algorithm to...
