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LONG-RUN RISKS IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: ESTIMATION (replicati...
This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time-varying volatility determine asset price... -
REAL-TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODE...
We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on lightly revised data instead of... -
HOW PUZZLING IS THE PPP PUZZLE? AN ALTERNATIVE HALF-LIFE MEASURE OF CONVERGEN...
Evidence of lengthy half-lives for real exchange rates in the presence of a high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical... -
EURO CORPORATE BOND RISK FACTORS (replication data)
This paper investigates the determinants of credit spread changes in euro-denominated bonds. We adopt a factor model framework, inspired by the credit risk structural approach,... -
Modelling dependence using skew t copulas: Bayesian inference and application...
We construct a copula from the skew t distribution of Sahu et al. (2003). This copula can capture asymmetric and extreme dependence between variables, and is one of the few... -
Nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply (repli...
This paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget-set models derived in Blomquist and Newey (2002) to censored dependent variables.... -
Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve (replication data)
We use Bayesian methods to estimate changes in US post-war monetary policy in the Smets and Wouters model. We perform the estimations by allowing for a break in monetary policy... -
Improved instrumental variables estimation of simultaneous equations under co...
In this paper we develop estimation techniques and a specification test for the validity of instrumental variables allowing for conditionally heteroskedastic disturbances. We... -
Estimation of nonlinear models with mismeasured regressors using marginal inf...
We consider the estimation of nonlinear models with mismeasured explanatory variables, when information on the marginal distribution of the true values of these variables is... -
Modelling heterogeneity and dynamics in the volatility of individual wages (r...
This paper presents a model for the heterogeneity and dynamics of the conditional mean and conditional variance of individual wages. A bias-corrected likelihood approach, which... -
Can subjective expectations data be used in choice models? evidence on cognit...
A pervasive concern with the use of subjective data in choice models is that they are biased and endogenous. This paper examines the extent to which cognitive biases plague... -
Stock market expectations of Dutch households (replication data)
Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other... -
Stock Market Crash and Expectations of American Households (replication data)
This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market... -
When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subj...
To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations regarding risk-return tradeoff. One of the few surveys which has elicited such... -
Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns (replication data)
We analyze probabilistic expectations of equity returns elicited in the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001 and in the Michigan Survey of Consumers in 2002-2004. Our... -
Individuals' uncertainty about future social security benefits and portfolio ...
Little is known about the degree to which individuals are uncertain about their future Social Security benefits, how this varies within the U.S. population, and whether this... -
Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries...
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper... -
Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation (replication data)
We introduce a survey-based measure of uncertainty about future inflation, asking consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes. Consumers are willing and able to... -
Measuring the willingness to pay to avoid guilt: estimation using equilibrium...
We estimate structural models of guilt aversion to measure the population level of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid feeling guilt by letting down another player. We compare... -
Semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems in real expenditure (rep...
Microdata concerning consumer demand typically show considerable variation in real expenditures, but very little variation in prices. We propose a semiparametric strategy for...
