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Timing structural change: a conditional probabilistic approach (replication d...
We propose a strategy for assessing structural stability in time-series frameworks when potential change dates are unknown. Existing stability tests are effective in detecting... -
How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case...
The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of using a Markov switching model to measure the synchronization of business cycles. We use a Bayesian, Gibbs... -
Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesia...
This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural... -
What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregre...
This paper uses a simple VAR for the USA and Euro area to analyse the underlying shocks of the early millennium slowdown, i.e. supply, demand, monetary policy and oil price... -
Business and default cycles for credit risk (replication data)
Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether these cycles coincide.... -
Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions (replication data)
This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession bounce-back in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this... -
Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy (replication data)
The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with... -
A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research (replicatio...
The paper argues that it is important to realize that the concept of a cycle has rarely been precisely articulated in empirical work and that often researchers are using very... -
Convergence in the trends and cycles of Euro-zone income (replication data)
Multivariate unobserved components (structural) time series models are fitted to annual post-war observations on real income per capita in countries in the Euro-zone. The aim is... -
The transmission of US shocks to Latin America (replication data)
I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to... -
More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversio...
Unit root tests, seeking mean or trend reversion, are frequently applied to panel data. We show that more powerful variants of commonly applied tests are readily available.... -
The Solow model with CES technology: nonlinearities and parameter heterogenei...
This paper examines whether nonlinearities in the aggregate production function can explain parameter heterogeneity in the Solow growth regressions. Nonlinearities in the... -
Do dropouts suffer from dropping out? Estimation and prediction of outcome ga...
In this paper we describe methods for predicting distributions of outcome gains in the framework of a latent variable selection model. We describe such procedures for Student-t... -
Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman–Taylor SUR approach (replication data)
This paper analyses the effects of distance as a common determinant of exports and FDI in a three-factor New Trade Theory model, assuming that distance affects both pure trade... -
Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline (replication data)
Under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), European Union (EU) Member States commit themselves to avoid excessive deficits over 3% of GDP and to pursue... -
Bayesian geoadditive modelling of breastfeeding initiation in Nigeria (replic...
A study into the geographical variability of timing of initial child breastfeeding after birth was carried out with the data set from the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health... -
Retesting Fair's (1978) model on infidelity (replication data)
Modern econometrics stresses the diagnostic testing of estimated models as an important part of the model-building process. In a survey article published in this journal (Pagan... -
A rational rank four demand system (replication data)
Past parametric tests of demand system rank employed polynomial Engel curve systems. However, by Gorman's (1981) theorem, the maximum possible rank of a utility-derived... -
Individual heterogeneity and censoring in panel data estimates of tobacco exp...
A panel of households is used to test the rational addiction model of Becker et al. (1994). These data raise problems of measurement errors, censoring, and unobservable... -
Long-range dependence in Spanish political opinion poll series (replication d...
This paper investigates the time series properties of partisanship for five political parties in Spain. It is found that pure fractional processes with a degree of integration,...
