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The economics of state fragmentation: Assessing the economic impact of secess...
This paper presents estimates of the economic effects of secession for a large panel of countries that gained independence between 1940 and 2016. It relies on a semi-parametric... -
Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool (replication data)
The linear pool is the most popular method for combining density forecasts. We analyze its implications concerning forecast uncertainty, using a new framework that focuses on... -
Economic impact of the most drastic lockdown during COVID‐19 pandemic—The exp...
This paper uses a panel data approach to assess the evolution of economic consequences of the drastic lockdown policy in the epicenter of COVID-19-the Hubei Province of China... -
International spillovers of forward guidance shocks (replication data)
We estimate a two-country model of the United States and Canada over the post 2009 sample to study the cross-country spillovers of forward guidance shocks. To do so, we propose... -
Aggregate consumption and wealth in the long run: The impact of financial lib...
This paper investigates the impact of financial liberalization on the relationship between consumption and total wealth (i.e., the sum of asset wealth and human wealth).... -
News media versus FRED‐MD for macroeconomic forecasting (replication data)
Using a unique dataset of 22.5 million news articles from the Dow Jones Newswires Archive, we perform an in depth real-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one... -
Are there no wage returns to compulsory schooling in Germany? A reassessment ...
This study replicates and challenges the finding of zero wage returns to compulsory schooling in Germany by Pischke and von Wachter (Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(3),... -
Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times: A replication of the v...
This paper revisits the well-known vector autoregressive (VAR) evidence on the real effects of uncertainty shocks by Bloom (2009, https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248). We replicate... -
Bootstrap inference and diagnostics in state space models: With applications ...
This paper investigates the potentials of the bootstrap as a tool for inference on the parameters of macroeconometric models which admit a state space representation. We... -
Cyclical labour income risk in Great Britain (replication data)
This paper provides new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household labour income risk in Great Britain and the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this... -
Uncertain Kingdom: Nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and its revisions (repli...
We propose a release-augmented dynamic factor model (RA-DFM) that allows to quantify the role of a country's data flow in nowcasting both early Gross Domestic Product (GDP)... -
Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecas...
Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components, where the trend may be viewed as the Fed's evolving inflation target or... -
Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from sta...
This paper uses state-level data to estimate the effect of government spending shocks during expansions and recessions. By employing a mixed-frequency framework, we are able to... -
Common correlated effect cross‐sectional dependence corrections for nonlinear...
This paper provides an approach to estimation and inference for nonlinear conditional mean panel data models, in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We modify Pesaran's... -
Cointegration and control: Assessing the impact of events using time series d...
Control groups can provide counterfactual evidence for assessing the impact of an event or policy change on a target variable. We argue that fitting a multivariate time series... -
Real‐time detection of regimes of predictability in the US equity premium (re...
We propose new real-time monitoring procedures for the emergence of end-of-sample predictive regimes using sequential implementations of standard (heteroskedasticity-robust)... -
Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms...
The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged... -
Reevaluating the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU: The role of instru...
Christodoulakis and Mamatzakis (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, pp. 583-606) estimate the EU Commission loss preferences for selected economic forecasts of 12 EU... -
Estimation and inference for spatial models with heterogeneous coefficients: ...
This paper considers the estimation and inference of spatial panel data models with heterogeneous spatial lag coefficients, with and without weakly exogenous regressors, and... -
Refining the workhorse oil market model (replication data)
The Kilian and Murphy (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, 454-478) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets....
