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NON-LINEAR DSGE MODELS AND THE CENTRAL DIFFERENCE KALMAN FILTER (replication ...
This paper introduces a quasi maximum likelihood approach based on the central difference Kalman filter to estimate non-linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)... -
EVALUATING REAL-TIME VAR FORECASTS WITH AN INFORMATIVE DEMOCRATIC PRIOR (repl...
This paper proposes Bayesian forecasting in a vector autoregression using a democratic prior. This prior is chosen to match the predictions of survey respondents. In particular,... -
UNEMPLOYMENT, HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION, AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY (...
This paper presents a structural estimation of a life cycle model with unemployment risk. The model allows for human capital depreciation during unemployment. It is estimated... -
HOW IMPORTANT ARE ENDOGENOUS PEER EFFECTS IN GROUP LENDING? ESTIMATING A STAT...
We quantify the importance of endogenous peer effects in group lending programs by estimating a static game of incomplete information. Endogenous peer effects describe how one's... -
THE EFFECT OF PARENTAL EMPLOYMENT ON CHILD SCHOOLING (replication data)
This paper presents a model that provides conditions under which a causal interpretation can be given to the association between childhood parental employment and subsequent... -
GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE SCORE MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS (replication data)
We propose a class of observation-driven time series models referred to as generalized autoregressive score (GAS) models. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the... -
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY MODELING OF ELECTRICITY FUTURES (replication data)
We model the dynamic volatility and correlation structure of electricity futures of the European Energy Exchange index. We use a new multiplicative dynamic conditional... -
EFFICIENT AGGREGATION OF PANEL QUALITATIVE SURVEY DATA (replication data)
Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only... -
MEDICAL EXPENDITURE RISK AND HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO CHOICE (replication data)
Medical expenses are an increasingly important contributor to household financial risk. We examine the effect of medical expenditure risk on the willingness of Medicare... -
SPATIAL COMPETITION WITH CHANGING MARKET INSTITUTIONS (replication data)
Competition across space can be fundamentally altered by changes in market institutions. We propose a framework that integrates market-altering policy changes in the spatial... -
SPATIAL FILTERING, MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE SPEED OF INCOME CONVERGENCE IN E...
In this paper we put forward a Bayesian model averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The... -
BENEFIT DURATION, UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION AND JOB MATCH QUALITY: A REGRESSION-D...
We use a sharp discontinuity in the maximum duration of benefit entitlement to identify the effect of extended benefit duration on unemployment duration and post-unemployment... -
ENTRY INTO PHARMACEUTICAL SUBMARKETS: A BAYESIAN PANEL PROBIT ANALYSIS (repli...
We study entry into pharmaceutical submarkets by using a dynamic panel probit model. We develop a Bayesian version of Wooldridge's approach to dealing with unobserved... -
TIME-VARYING DYNAMICS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS (repli...
We use a time-varying structural vector autoregression to investigate evolving dynamics of the real exchange rate for the UK, euro area and Canada. We show that demand and... -
POOLING VERSUS MODEL SELECTION FOR NOWCASTING GDP WITH MANY PREDICTORS: EMPIR...
This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with large datasets in the presence of model uncertainty. In practice, nowcasting a low-frequency variable... -
LONG-RUN RISKS IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: ESTIMATION (replicati...
This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time-varying volatility determine asset price... -
REAL-TIME FORECASTING OF INFLATION AND OUTPUT GROWTH WITH AUTOREGRESSIVE MODE...
We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on lightly revised data instead of... -
HOW PUZZLING IS THE PPP PUZZLE? AN ALTERNATIVE HALF-LIFE MEASURE OF CONVERGEN...
Evidence of lengthy half-lives for real exchange rates in the presence of a high degree of exchange rate volatility has been considered as one of the most puzzling empirical... -
DURATION DEPENDENCE VERSUS UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY IN TREATMENT EFFECTS: SWE...
The effect of a treatment on the hazard rate of a duration outcome may depend on the elapsed time since treatment. In addition, treatment effects may be heterogeneous across... -
WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING? (replication data)
This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary...
