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Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and th...
We analyze dynamics of the permanent and transitory components of the US economic activity and the stock market obtained by multivariate dynamic factor modeling. We capture... -
Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibrat...
This paper reviews current density forecast evaluation procedures, and considers a proposal that such procedures be augmented by an assessment of sharpness. This was motivated... -
Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements (replication data)
We use recently proposed tests to extract jumps and cojumps from three types of assets: stock index futures, bond futures, and exchange rates. We then characterize the dynamics... -
Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international fina...
Understanding the complexity of the financial transmission process across various assets-domestically as well as within and across asset classes-requires the simultaneous... -
How different is Africa? A comment on Masanjala and Papageorgiou (replication...
Masanjala and Papageorgiou (Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging, Journal of Applied... -
Modelling and forecasting multivariate realized volatility (replication data)
This paper proposes a methodology for dynamic modelling and forecasting of realized covariance matrices based on fractionally integrated processes. The approach allows for... -
Modeling and forecasting short-term interest rates: The benefits of smooth re...
In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and variance of the short-term interest rate process. The estimation of such models is...
