Clive W. J. Granger
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can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts? (replication data)

A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives.

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Suggested Citation

Granger, Clive W. J. (1996): Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts? (replication data). Version: 1. Journal of Applied Econometrics. Dataset. https://jda-test.zbw.eu/dataset/can-we-improve-the-perceived-quality-of-economic-forecasts?activity_id=c20e5e73-6a2e-4fc8-adfb-992ac7a0d64b